Sport Investors League
  • Politics
  • Stocks
  • Investing
  • Business

Sport Investors League

  • Politics
  • Stocks
  • Investing
  • Business
Stocks

S&P 500 Now in Weakest Seasonal Period…Or Is It?

by admin May 17, 2025
May 17, 2025
S&P 500 Now in Weakest Seasonal Period…Or Is It?

We’ve all heard the classic market maxim, “Sell in May and go away.”  For many investors, that’s the introduction to market seasonality that suggests a six month period where it’s just best to avoid stocks altogether.

Through my own experience, complemented with interviews with seasonality experts like ”  We’ll dig deeper into the history of “Sell in May,” analyze summer trends in recent years, and focus on signs to follow in the weeks and months ahead!  Sign up HERE for this free event!


It turns out that the reason why “sell in May” has often worked out is less about May being super weak, but more about how major lows have usually come in the fall months.  Since the COVID low in early 2020, we’ve experienced major lows in September or October every year except for 2024.

Spring and Early Summer Have Been Crazy Strong

When we focus on the last five years, we can see that the May-June-July period has been consistently strong.  In fact, May and July have seen bullish trends every year since 2019.  So while investors often talk about the “summer doldrums” and weakness into the hot summer months, the recent evidence would suggest otherwise.

The weakest months since the COVID low have actually been January, February, September, and October.  So again, it’s been less about weakness in the spring, and much more about weaker price action into the traditional low in September or October.  Also note the strength in November, where the market is almost always rallying off a major low and setting up for a positive finish to the calendar year!

Will 2025 Follow the Normal Seasonal Pattern?

As I mentioned earlier, I like to think of seasonal patterns as tendencies.  There is no guarantee that July will be strong, and there is no way I can tell you for sure that the market will make yet another major low in September.  Seasonality tells you the general bias to the markets, but mindful investors know the most important evidence is price itself.

Given the extreme rally off the early April low, we’ve seen a rapid rotation from bearish sentiment to more bullish outlooks as investors have started to believe in the new uptrend phase.  This week’s price gap higher for the S&P 500 could provide a perfect support range to monitor in the coming weeks and months.

If the S&P 500 is able to hold 5750, and remain above the support range set from the gap earlier this month, then perhaps the equity markets will follow the same pattern as recent years and remain strong into August.

If, however, the S&P 500 is unable to hold this key support range, and we also confirm that breakdown with weaker momentum readings and deteriorating breadth conditions, then the S&P 500 may be charting a new course through what has become a strong period in the calendar year.

RR#6,

Dave

PS- Ready to upgrade your investment process?  Check out my free behavioral investing course!

David Keller, CMT

President and Chief Strategist

Sierra Alpha Research LLC

marketmisbehavior.com

https://www.youtube.com/c/MarketMisbehavior

Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice.  The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.  

The author does not have a position in mentioned securities at the time of publication.    Any opinions expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not in any way represent the views or opinions of any other person or entity.

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Former FBI Director James Comey meets with Secret Service after controversial ’86 47′ post
next post
Applying Dow Theory to Today’s Market: Are We in a Reversal or a New Trend?

Related Posts

5 Strong Stocks Defying the Bearish Market!

March 12, 2025

Master the 18/40 MA Strategy: Spot Trend, Momentum...

May 1, 2025

Bitcoin Holds Up, but Remains Short of Relative...

April 4, 2025

This Is How I Crush The Benchmark S&P...

February 19, 2025

Two Down and Two to Go – Capitulation...

May 4, 2025

The Best Five Sectors, #4

January 25, 2025

Why the S&P 500 Won’t Break 6000 (Yet)

October 29, 2024

Key Levels for the S&P 500: Has It...

April 11, 2025

SPY and QQQ Recapture their 200-day SMAs –...

May 17, 2025

The Best Five Sectors, #15

April 15, 2025

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent

    • White House says federal layoffs could hit ‘thousands’ ahead of Trump, Vought meeting

      October 3, 2025
    • Johnson shuts door on negotiating shutdown deal as Democrats dig in on Obamacare

      October 3, 2025
    • Trump must triple severely outdated nuke arsenal to outpace China and Russia, report warns

      October 3, 2025
    • ‘Real consequences’: Food aid, flood insurance, FEMA funds in jeopardy amid shutdown, Johnson says

      October 3, 2025
    • The agency staff Vought might recommend cutting and whether the cuts will be permanent

      October 3, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (1,115)
    • Investing (3,175)
    • Politics (3,869)
    • Stocks (1,155)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: sportinvestorsleague.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 sportinvestorsleague.com | All Rights Reserved