Sport Investors League
  • Politics
  • Stocks
  • Investing
  • Business

Sport Investors League

  • Politics
  • Stocks
  • Investing
  • Business
Stocks

Week Ahead: NIFTY Steps Into Next Week With These Two Negative Technical Developments

by admin January 12, 2025
January 12, 2025
Week Ahead: NIFTY Steps Into Next Week With These Two Negative Technical Developments

The markets extended their decline over the past five sessions and ended the week on a negative note. While the week started on a bearish note, the Nifty violated a few key levels on higher and lower time frame charts. Along with the weak undercurrent, the trading range widened again as the Nifty moved in a 745-point range. The volatility spiked up, and India Vix surged 10.16% to 14.91 on a weekly basis. Following a thoroughly bearish undertone, the headline index closed with a net weekly loss of 573.25 points (-2.39%).

The week that has gone by has remained important from a technical perspective. The Nifty started the week by violating the 200-DMA placed at 23940 and has closed significantly below this crucial level. On the weekly charts, the Nifty has breached another critical level of 50-week MA, currently at 23659. In the process, the Nifty has dragged its resistance points lower; any technical rebound will find resistance at this point. It is important to note that the 50-week MA has been violated after three retests, and the breach of this level will have bearish considerations for the markets. Unless the Nifty crosses above this level again, it will stay vulnerable to a prolonged phase of weakness.

Monday is likely to see the Nifty beginning on a soft note; the levels of 23650 and 23880 are likely to act as resistance points. The supports come in at 23300 and 23050 levels.

The weekly RSI is 43.53; it has marked a new 14-period low, which is bearish. The RSI also shows a bearish divergence against the price. The weekly MACD is bearish and stays below the signal line. The widening Histogram hints at accelerated momentum on the downside.

The pattern analysis of the weekly chart shows Nifty completing a painful process of mean reversion by finding support at the 50-week MA in November. Since then, it has retested this level three times and has breached it by closing below this crucial level. The 50-week MA is placed at 23659; so long as the Index stays below this point, it remains vulnerable to an extended period of weakness in the near term.

Over the past week, the technical developments have created a strong resistance zone for the Nifty between 23650-24000 level. So long as the Index stays below this zone, it will likely trade with a weak undercurrent. Given the current technical setup, cutting down on leveraged exposures and keeping them at modest levels is extremely important. While initiating fresh exposures, staying in the stocks with strong or improving Relative Strength will be necessary as that would provide resilience to the investments. While staying highly selective, a highly cautious outlook is recommended for the coming week.


Sector Analysis for the coming week

In our look at Relative Rotation Graphs®, we compared various sectors against CNX500 (NIFTY 500 Index), which represents over 95% of the free float market cap of all the stocks listed.

Relative Rotation Graphs (RRG) show that Nifty Bank, Services Sector, Nifty Financial Services, and Nifty IT indices are inside the leading quadrant. Barring the Nifty IT index, all others are seen giving up on their relative momentum. The Nifty Midcap 100 has rolled inside the leading quadrant and may relatively outperform the broader markets.

The Nifty Pharma Index stays inside the weakening quadrant.

The Nifty Metal Index has rolled inside the lagging quadrant. Along with the Media, PSE, Energy, and Commodities, it is likely to underperform the broader markets relatively. The Infrastructure, Auto, FMCG, and Consumption Indices are in the lagging quadrant but are improving their relative momentum against the broader markets.

The Nifty Realty index is well placed inside the improving quadrant. The PSU Bank Index is also inside the improving quadrant, but it is seen paring its relative momentum against the broader markets.


Important Note: RRG charts show the relative strength and momentum of a group of stocks. In the above Chart, they show relative performance against NIFTY500 Index (Broader Markets) and should not be used directly as buy or sell signals.  


Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA

Consulting Technical Analyst

www.EquityResearch.asia | www.ChartWizard.ae

0
FacebookTwitterGoogle +Pinterest
previous post
Market Pullbacks Provide Opportunities to Build your WatchList – Here’s How
next post
What Higher Rates Could Mean for the S&P 500

Related Posts

United Airlines Stock Soars: Watch For a Promising...

October 17, 2024

Quantum Computing: Top Stocks You Should Watch Now!

January 17, 2025

Traders are Eyeing These Metals After China’s Big...

October 2, 2024

DP Trading Room: Long-Term Outlook for Bonds

April 22, 2025

Top 5 Stocks in “Go” Trends | Fri...

August 10, 2024

This Industry Just Broke Out And Is Poised...

November 15, 2024

Why Investors are Betting Big on Berkshire Hathaway...

June 27, 2024

Navigating Holiday Stock Market Changes: Turn Sentiment Shifts...

November 28, 2024

This Precious Metal is On the Verge of...

March 27, 2025

Will This Sector Rotation Be The Start Of...

July 19, 2024

    Get free access to all of the retirement secrets and income strategies from our experts! or Join The Exclusive Subscription Today And Get the Premium Articles Acess for Free


    By opting in you agree to receive emails from us and our affiliates. Your information is secure and your privacy is protected.

    Recent

    • How I Find Up-trending Stocks Every Week (Step-by-Step Scan Tutorial)

      June 4, 2025
    • S&P 500 Bullish Patterns: Are Higher Highs Ahead?

      June 4, 2025
    • White House stands by tax bill after Musk calls it a ‘disgusting abomination’

      June 4, 2025
    • South Korea flips left in presidential race; Lee secures victory after conservative opponent concedes

      June 4, 2025
    • Trump and Melania to headline power-player packed Kennedy Center opening night

      June 4, 2025

    Categories

    • Business (964)
    • Investing (2,310)
    • Politics (2,863)
    • Stocks (1,051)
    • About us
    • Contact us
    • Privacy Policy
    • Terms & Conditions

    Disclaimer: sportinvestorsleague.com, its managers, its employees, and assigns (collectively “The Company”) do not make any guarantee or warranty about what is advertised above. Information provided by this website is for research purposes only and should not be considered as personalized financial advice. The Company is not affiliated with, nor does it receive compensation from, any specific security. The Company is not registered or licensed by any governing body in any jurisdiction to give investing advice or provide investment recommendation. Any investments recommended here should be taken into consideration only after consulting with your investment advisor and after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

    Copyright © 2025 sportinvestorsleague.com | All Rights Reserved